Far too much media coverage of politics focuses on the horserace angle--who's ahead, who's behind, who's up or down. It relies on false equivalency: if Politician A says X, then the reporter goes to Politician B, who's sure to say Y. That's lazy journalism, and it doesn't actually inform the public about which position (if any) is actually true, or adheres to the facts as we know them. At TWiA, our mission is to discuss politics through the prism of policy--to look, in other words, at the real-world implications of the things that politicians say and do, to make connections others might miss, and to explain it all in language a lay person can understand. Also to offer suggestions of how you can help somebody in need, to report on what's awesome, and to keep tabs on bears. If you like TWiA, share or repost or tell a friend, and be sure to leave comments, even if they're arguments. Especially if they're arguments.
This Week in Debates
The first Democratic debate has come and gone (transcript here). Most journalists, pundits, and political experts (including TWiA) thought Hillary Clinton won, hands down, but to much of the general public, Bernie Sanders came out ahead. We thought Bernie was out of his element--he came across as old, sometimes confused and/or hard of hearing, and generally cranky. When talking about issues of inequality and economic opportunity, he's good (though he's on the... let's say, "optimistic" side about how he'd pay for all his ideas. But those appear to be the only topics he's interested in discussing, and when other things come up--especially around foreign policy--they're way over his head.
Clinton, on the other hand, was smart and substantive, sometimes funny, sometimes charming. Of the five on stage, she was the only one who looked or acted presidential. She was never at a loss for words. Her remarks were pointed when they needed to be. She showed what a good debater she'd be in the general election, especially up against somebody like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. (Nobody can effectively debate Trump, because he just speaks gibberish, and that 25% or so of the Republican base rewards him for it--but the general election audience won't.)
So yeah, we give it to Hillary on substance. We know others disagree (but not everybody).
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Here's a Venn diagram showing what topics were discussed at the Democratic debate compared to those that came up in the first two Republican debates. Republicans are fighting about building border walls, birthright citizenship, whether vaccines cause autism, the deficit*, and why the IRS should be abolished, while Democrats talk about racism, college debt, veterans care, and financial reform. And the diagram doesn't even factor in how much time the Republicans spent talking about Carly Fiorina's face and who's stupider than whom.
*We've yet to hear any of the Republican candidates admit that the deficit has shrunk by $1 trillion during the Obama administration. When Obama took office, the deficit as a percentage of the overall economy was 9.8%; now it's only 2.5%. It's important that voters know this, because if they believe the right-wing blather about the huge deficit that's growing all the time, they might choose to elect the people--Republicans--who are actually the ones who grow deficits.
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Former MD Governor Martin O'Malley's best moment came in his closing statement, when he contrasted this debate with those of the Republican candidates: "On this stage -- on this stage, you didn't hear anyone denigrate women, you didn't hear anyone make racist comments about new American immigrants, you didn't hear anyone speak ill of another American because of their religious belief. What you heard instead on this stage tonight was an honest search for the answers that will move our country forward, to move us to a 100-percent clean electric energy grid by 2050, to take the actions that we have always taken as Americans so that we can actually attack injustice in our country, employ more of our people, rebuild our cities and towns, educate our children at higher and better levels, and include more of our people in the economic, social, and political life of our country. "
That moment wasn't enough to make him a contender, though. Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were also there, more or less. For Chafee, it seems to be because he needs a hobby. Webb spent most of his time complaining that he didn't get enough time. Neither will stay in for long.
This Weekend in Carson City
Donald Trump is an egotistical blowhard and a racist, all hair and bluster and without any real ideas. Everybody knows that. Which doesn't stop his candidacy from being popular with a significant chunk of the Republican base.
But Dr. Ben Carson is running a close second (statistically tied in the latest Fox "News" poll), and polling shows that his "favorable" numbers, among the base, are higher than Trump's. People just plain like him.
Which would be fine if he were running for Chief of Surgery somewhere. But running for the presidency, his bizarre, extreme, and just plain weirdo views should disqualify him. Somehow, a vast swath of the American electorate seems unwilling to understand that.
On Monday, the New York Times reported on how Carson's small-donor contributions have increased, the more bizarre his statements have become. His comment that he wouldn't want a Muslim for president, only partially walked back, generated a flood of new contributions. Presumably his blaming the Oregon college shooting victims for their own deaths will do the same.
More offensive by far was his related blaming of Europe's Jewish population for letting Hitler and the Nazis try to exterminate them. Following up on Carson's original comment, CNN's Wolf Blitzer asked Carson this: "But just clarify, if there had been no gun control laws in Europe at that time, would 6 million Jews have been slaughtered?"
Carson's response: "I think the likelihood of Hitler being able to accomplish his goals would have been greatly diminished if the people had been armed... I’m telling you that there is a reason that these dictatorial people take the guns first."
The facts are not on Carson's side. First, Germany had stricter gun control laws before Hitler came into power than after. Hitler relaxed them, making guns more available to the populace, not less. Hitler did ban gun ownership among Germany's Jews, but as the national director of the Anti-Defamation League wrote, "It is mind-bending to suggest that personal firearms in the hands of the small number of Germany’s Jews (about 214,000 remaining in Germany in 1938) could have stopped the totalitarian onslaught of Nazi Germany when the armies of Poland, France, Belgium and numerous other countries were overwhelmed by the Third Reich.”
Maddowblog highlights an even more recent bit of Carson inanity: "The pledge of allegiance to our flag says we are one nation under God. Many courtrooms in the land on the wall it says ‘In God We Trust.’ Every coin in our pocket, every bill in our wallet says ‘In God We Trust.’ So if it’s in our founding documents, it’s in our pledges, in our courts and it’s on our money, but we’re not supposed to talk about it, what in the world is that? In medicine it’s called schizophrenia. And I, for one, am simply not willing to kick God to the curb."
What's wrong with that statement? Factually, everything.
When criticized, Carson blames "political correctness." It's okay to say anything at all, regardless of how imaginary or absurd, because to do otherwise means surrendering to political correctness.
No, Dr. Carson, it means accepting correctness. There are things that happened, and things that didn't. Some are real and some exist only in your head. It would be good for you to learn the difference.
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Do a party's leaders influence the base, or does the base influence the leaders? Or do the media talking heads influence everybody? Longtime conservative NYT columnist David Brooks wrote a piece this week bemoaning what the Republican Party has become (the phrase "jaw-dropping incompetence" is employed).
"This was not just the work of the Freedom Caucus or Ted Cruz or one month’s activity. The Republican Party’s capacity for effective self-governance degraded slowly, over the course of a long chain of rhetorical excesses, mental corruptions and philosophical betrayals. Basically, the party abandoned traditional conservatism for right-wing radicalism. Republicans came to see themselves as insurgents and revolutionaries, and every revolution tends toward anarchy and ends up devouring its own."
Brooks continues, "By traditional definitions, conservatism stands for intellectual humility, a belief in steady, incremental change, a preference for reform rather than revolution, a respect for hierarchy, precedence, balance and order, and a tone of voice that is prudent, measured and responsible. Conservatives of this disposition can be dull, but they know how to nurture and run institutions. They also see the nation as one organic whole. Citizens may fall into different classes and political factions, but they are still joined by chains of affection that command ultimate loyalty and love."
If you think that doesn't sound much like 21st century Republicans, you're right. Brooks is a holdover from times past (which once was implicit in the "conservative" tag), ideological kin to the William F. Buckley who banished the racists and John Birchers from the conservative movement, rather than embracing and pandering to them like today's movement does.
"Politics," Brooks writes, "is the process of making decisions amid diverse opinions. It involves conversation, calm deliberation, self-discipline, the capacity to listen to other points of view and balance valid but competing ideas and interests.
"But this new Republican faction regards the messy business of politics as soiled and impure. Compromise is corruption. Inconvenient facts are ignored. Countrymen with different views are regarded as aliens. Political identity became a sort of ethnic identity, and any compromise was regarded as a blood betrayal."
He concludes, "These insurgents are incompetent at governing and unwilling to be governed. But they are not a spontaneous growth. It took a thousand small betrayals of conservatism to get to the dysfunction we see all around."
Looked at in this context, it's no wonder the base has fallen in love with Trump, Carson, and Cruz. They're not thoughtful, reasonable conservatives. They're bomb-throwers more interesting in proving government can't work than in helping it work better. They're allergic to compromise, and people who can't compromise can't function within America's tripartite system of government.
Then again, as the Washington Post reports, "Fewer than a third of citizens can name all three branches of the federal government. Just as many can't even identify one of them, according to polling by the Annenberg Public Policy Center." Given that sad fact, it's perhaps not surprising that the Know-Nothing candidates are picking up plenty of followers.
This Week in Benghazi
We've long said that the only scandal surrounding the Benghazi incident was the way Republicans used the deaths of four brave Americans for partisan political advantage. Multiple congressional committees have investigated the incident and come up with no damning information about then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the State Department, or anything else (except, perhaps, the unwillingness of House Republicans to increase funding for diplomatic security). Other comprehensive investigations have shown the same thing. Clinton acted appropriately, as did her department and the US military.
It was obvious from the start that the current House Select Committee on Clinton Attacks--we mean, on Benghazi--had no intention of looking for the truth of the situation. Chairman Trey Gowdy (R/SC), like Chairman Darrell Issa (R/CA) of the previous committee, has a habit of leaking bits and pieces of testimony that cast Clinton in a bad light, causing Democrats on the committees to demand that full transcripts, not misleading excerpts, be released. When called upon to testify, Clinton insisted that she do so in an open session, so the public could see what she actually said instead of just reading cherry-picked nuggets. The committee refused for months, pushing back her planned appearance until next week.
Now, one shoe after another is dropping. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R/CA) killed his own shot at the Speaker's chair in part by telling the truth about the committee's purpose: "Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable. But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping."
The next, according to the Associated Press, was this: "A former investigator for the House Select Committee on Benghazi says he was unlawfully fired in part because he sought to conduct a comprehensive probe into deadly attacks on the U.S. compound instead of focusing on Hillary Rodham Clinton and the State Department.”
That was followed by this, in the New York Times: "Senior Republican officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing confidential conversations, said that Mr. Boehner had long been suspicious of the administration’s handling of the attacks and that Mrs. Clinton’s emails gave him a way to keep the issue alive and to cause political problems for her campaign."
Jamelle Bouie runs through the whole sordid story in Slate. The takeaway is this: the House Select Committee on Benghazi was established and kept alive longer than any similar committee on anything (including JFK's assassination and 9/11) in order to damage Clinton's reputation ahead of the 2016 presidential election. It's a taxpayer-funded sham, and any House Republican participating in it should be deeply ashamed.
This Week in Gun Safety
There's so much gun news coming out daily that it's hard to keep up. Here's a rundown of some of the latest.
Guns were a significant topic of this week's Democratic debate, where the candidates spent nine minutes talking about them. Finally, Democratic presidential candidates signal a willingness to stare down the NRA (which has had only lackluster results in recent elections--where they've put serious money behind candidates, it's usually been those already considered very likely to win; they haven't been the biggest contributor even to those, and they've lost a lot of important races). Republicans say they're glad to see Democrats taking on the issue, because it will energize pro-gun voters. The fact is, though, the most hardcore pro-gun voters already vote, and usually for Republicans. It's been a major issue on that side for years. But Democrats have rarely gone head-to-head with the NRA; doing so can draw out those anti-gun death people who haven't bothered to vote because they didn't think anybody would stand up for them.
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Randy Pullen, a former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, thinks he has the answer to the whole problem: "take guns away from blacks as they are the main killers."
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This is week 42 of 2015 (unless we've missed one). In 2015, at least 43 toddlers have shot somebody. 13 toddlers have killed themselves or been killed by another toddler (this count doesn't include those killed by adults). And these are just the cases reported in the media; there could be more.
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Regular TWiA readers know that the number of Americans killed by guns every year is somewhere north of 30,000. Many of those unfortunates who aren't regular readers, though, are unaware of that. In a recent poll, 48% of people said, "I don't know." Of the people who did guess, the median number picked was 5,000.
5,000 American lives lost every year is still too many. But from a policy perspective, if you're weighing what you've been told are "Second Amendment rights" against 5,000 lives, you might think that's not enough corpses to justify stricter gun laws. 30,000+, year in and year out, makes the issue sound much more urgent--but somehow, Americans aren't getting the real number.
Side Note: Americans are generally clueless about a lot of numbers. Most Americans think that the pay ratio between CEOs and their employees is about 30:1, making inequality in that respect seem like not such a big deal. The true ratio is closer to 300:1. That's a big difference.
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A pro-gun death advocate named John Lott wrote a book several years ago in which he argued that "more guns equals less crime." Lott is to guns what climate change deniers are to climate--a handy reference for those who want to pretend that the math is on their side, when it's clearly not. Numerous researchers have demonstrated that Lott's methodology was bad and his conclusions wrong. Nevertheless, Lott was in Michigan this week, pushing his debunked theories in support of a bill that would allow guns in churches, schools, and bars.
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This week Maine joined the states (including TWiA's home state of Arizona) that allow concealed carry without a license. Law enforcement officials are already warning that the law will put their officers and the public at greater risk.
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This article is a little more than a year old, but pertinent to the fuss that the Democratic debate will cause in some pro-gun death circles. When Justice Antonin Scalia wrote the majority opinion in District of Columbia v. Heller, the first Supreme Court decision ever to interpret the Second Amendment as being primarily about individual gun rights (and ignoring, as the NRA does, the part about the "well-regulated militia"), he claimed to be operating from "originalism." But to do so he ignored all the history about what the Constitution's framers really intended. They accepted individual gun ownership--with certain restrictions, as is the case with Heller--but their focus was on militias. Individual gun ownership was important not only for self-defense in a dangerous time, but because white men were expected to comprise the militias, so needed to have guns. Scalia skipped the militia part of the amendment almost completely.
Yes, SCOTUS has ruled in favor of individual gun rights, but not without restrictions. And having been the first Supreme Court to interpret the amendment that way, they could well be overturned in the future. No Democratic candidate is advocating seizing all guns, or outlawing guns, or anything of the kind. They're advocating sensible gun safety measures that would prevent some of the many, many needless gun deaths we see every day, and we'd all do well to remember that.
This Week in Terrorism
In April 2009, the Department of Homeland Security issued a report on the threat posed by right-wing extremist groups. The right went berserk, calling it "political bias" and "propaganda," among other, less polite terms. Under the barrage of criticism, the report's author quit his job, and the report was quietly shelved.
Since then, domestic terrorism has killed many more Americans than international terrorism. Now, finally, the Department of Justice is making domestic terrorism (virtually all of which comes from the extreme right--a priority, and has created a special position to coordinate investigations into the threat.
One hopes the right will let it do its job, which is to protect American lives. Since it's impossible to prove a negative, we'll never know how many people have died because DHS was blocked from focusing on the issue six years ago, but the number isn't zero.
This Week in Bears
We've often reported on bears seeking to better themselves through education. Here's another example. (Thanks to TWiA special ursine-life correspondent Marcy Rockwell for the tip.)
If you leave your doors unlocked, you might be lucky enough to have company.